‘A Critical Scenario’: Hostilities on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Stock.
The shockwaves of a military engagement being fought nearly a significant distance away are now reaching India's households.
As aerial attacks on Iran hinder energy deliveries through the key maritime chokepoint, stocks of cooking gas are shrinking across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, reduce operating times and in some cases close completely.
Social media is filled with video clips showing lines outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian urban and rural areas as anxieties over fuel supplies escalate. Restaurant kitchens appear the worst hit: the sharpest squeeze is in restaurant kitchens.
"Conditions are critical. LPG simply isn't available," says a official of the a major restaurant body.
Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or direct gas lines, and the scarcities are now being noticed across the country. "Many restaurants have shut down - some in the capital, many in the southern region. People are turning to solid fuels and electric cookers to keep their operations going."
Regional Impact
In a western metro, media reports say up to a significant portion of hotels and restaurants are already fully or partly shut as commercial LPG supplies dry up. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some restaurants say their fuel reserves have shrunk with little backup. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no other dishes - it is extremely difficult. Operations will be impacted," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.
Restaurant owners are seeking alternatives. "Menus are being curtailed, some are cutting lunch service and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that closures are changing as supplies wax and wane. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a changing landscape."
Retailers observe a increase in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are running out of them.
Government Stance
Yet, the officials maintains there is no shortage.
India has more than 300 million home fuel subscribers and authorities say supplies are being redirected to households as geopolitical strain from the war in the Gulf affect energy markets.
Approximately six out of ten of India's LPG is imported, and about 90% of those consignments pass through the key maritime route, the strategic bottleneck now significantly disrupted by the hostilities.
The relevant department says that it ordered refineries to boost LPG output for domestic use, enhancing domestic production by about a quarter. Business-grade fuel is being allocated for essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "just and open".
"Unnecessary hoarding and accumulation has been caused by misinformation. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about under three days," says a government spokesperson.
Growing Panic
Now the anxiety is moving beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of motorbikes outside a fuel station. "Anxiety is palpable," the text reads.
According to analysis from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be premature.
India imports 90% of its crude oil. Around a significant portion of its petroleum shipments - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from regional suppliers.
Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the gap could be partly made up by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a industry commentator.
Based on shipping data and industry information, additional Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.
"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.
LPG: The Real Vulnerability
The primary concern is kitchen fuel, experts note.
India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the Strait.
Refineries can adjust processes to produce a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only lift domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.
In short: "Crude supply risk can be partially mitigated through alternative sourcing. Processed petroleum stocks remains fairly adequate. LPG availability is the key factor to track in the coming weeks."
What may be heightening the anxiety on the ground is not just tight supply but erratic supply chains - and the common threat of panic buying.
An industry representative alleges exploitative practices.
"Distributors are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold to the highest bidder."
For now, India's petroleum stocks may be protected by global trade flows. But in homes across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next refill.
