Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
