NFL Play-Off Picture: Crucial Matchups & Scenarios for the Season Finale.
As we head into the final week of the regular NFL campaign, just two play-off spots are still up for grabs. Yet, far more is on the line, including the coveted top seeds in both conferences and four divisional crowns.
NFL schedulers have crafted a perfect finale, with the final two postseason places to be decided in two direct winner-take-all contests.
NFL Postseason Picture as of Week 18
American Football Conference Rankings
- Denver (13-3)
- New England Patriots (13-3)
- Jacksonville (12-4)
- Pittsburgh (9-7) / Baltimore (8-8)
- Houston Texans (11-5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo Bills (11-5)
The winner of the Pittsburgh-Baltimore contest will secure the fourth seed and a home game in the wildcard round. Meanwhile, the Bills and Los Angeles are locked in as wildcard teams.
Houston require a victory coupled with a Jaguars loss to climb from the fifth seed to third. The Broncos will earn the top seed with a win, but a setback could pave the way for New England or the Jaguars to claim it.
NFC Standings
- Seattle (13-3)
- Chicago Bears (11-5)
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
- Carolina (8-8) / Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
- San Francisco (12-4)
- L.A. Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay (9-6)
The NFC South will be claimed by the victor of the Carolina-Tampa Bay game, earning them the fourth seed. However, the Panthers could still win the divisional title even with a loss, contingent on other outcomes.
The Packers are set at the seventh seed. The marquee matchup, though, is the clash for the #1 seed in the NFC between Seattle and the 49ers, with a first-round bye and home-field advantage hanging in the balance.
Understanding the NFL Play-Off Format
The #1 team in both the AFC and NFC earns a valuable first-round bye and home games throughout the postseason.
On Wildcard Weekend, the remaining six qualified teams compete: the second seed hosts the #7 team, third hosts sixth, and #4 faces #5.
In the Divisional Round, the #1 seeds join the fray, facing the weakest surviving team. The conference title games are then hosted by the best remaining team, highlighting the critical importance of earning that top spot.
AFC North Decider: A Brutal Finale
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (01:20, Monday)
This bitter grudge match comes to a head in the last contest of the regular season. The divisional title and a play-off berth at stake, this is a true elimination scenario.
Pittsburgh have been up and down all year, while Baltimore started poorly but remain in the hunt. Player availability could be decisive: Pittsburgh may be without key target their top wideout, while Baltimore's signal-caller their MVP QB is questionable with a back injury.
Running back Derrick Henry could be the difference-maker for Baltimore in what promises to be a physical, low-scoring struggle.
NFC West Showdown for the Top Seed
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Not only the division title is at stake when the Seahawks visits San Francisco. The victorious team claims the NFC's top seed and the path to the Super Bowl that comes with it.
This matchup pits an explosive 49ers offense against a stingy Seattle defense. Since quarterback their young passer returned, San Francisco have been the NFL's highest scorers. Conversely, Seattle's defense is rated among the best in the league.
Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold needs to cut down on costly turnovers that have plagued him this season. The team that comes out on top gains a massive edge for the playoff run.
The NFC South's Uncertain Finish
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30 Saturday)
Neither team enters this contest with strong form. The Buccaneers have lost seven of eight, while the Panthers have missed chances to clinch the division.
For Carolina it's simple: win and they're in. The Buccaneers, the scenario is more complex. Even with a victory, they need another result from the Atlanta-New Orleans matchup to claim the divisional championship.
AFC's Top Seed Up for Grabs
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00, Sunday)
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins (21:25, Sunday)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25, Sunday)
Denver control their destiny for the #1 AFC spot. A victory over a L.A. Chargers team likely to rest key players seals it.
If the Broncos lose, the door opens for the Patriots. A New England victory combined with a Denver defeat would give the top seed to Bill Belichick's team.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the dark horse. They need a triumph and losses by the Broncos and Patriots to achieve an improbable ascent to #1. More importantly, a Jaguars loss could allow them to be overtaken by the Texans in the division standings.
Full Slate of Final Week Games
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
