Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.
Serious Obstacles in the Selection Process
A number of figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to head off any potential leadership challenge.
The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.
